A mid-air incident in which Iranian warplanes opened fire on a US surveillance drone high over the Persian Gulf has brought home how nuclear tensions and increased military hardware in a confined area can lead to a clash that could escalate out of control.
Western officials are concerned that minority elements on both sides of the confrontation in the region have a vested interest in triggering such a clash. Some Israeli leaders would like to see the US drawn in so that superior US forces could strike a crippling blow to Iranian nuclear facilities, while a 'war party' in Tehran sees a conflict as a means of rallying support for the regime and cracking down yet further on dissent, officials say.
They believe the risk of a "spoiler" incident will rise if a new diplomatic push aimed at reaching a peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear crisis appears to show progress.
The Pentagon said that on 1 November two Sukhoi 25 jet fighters flown by Iranian Revolutionary Guards, fired at the Predator drone carrying out a routine but "classified surveillance mission", 16 miles off the Iranian shore four miles outside its territorial waters.
Late last year the Iranians displayed a US surveillance drone they said they had brought down by hijacking its electronic controls, but last week's incident marked the first time Iranian jets had fired on a US aircraft.
The Iranian defence minister, Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, claimed that an unidentified aircraft had entered Iranian airspace, but had been "forced to flee due to the prompt, smart and decisive action of Last month, an Iranian-American used car dealer, Mansour Arbabsiar, pleaded guilty to trying to hire assassins from a Mexican drug cartel to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington, Adel al-Jubeir, in his favourite Georgetown restaurant. His guilty plea referred to "officials in the Iranian military" as his co-conspirators. The US attorney-general, Eric Holder, said the plot had been "directed and approved by elements of the Iranian government and, specifically, senior members of the Quds force." Gholam Shakuri, another man charged over his alleged involvement in the plot but who is on the run, is described as a Quds force member.
US intelligence agencies have found it hard to square the amateur nature of the plot Arbabsiar, whose defence team claims is bipolar, was less than discreet in his attempts to hire Mexican hitmen with hard evidence of money transfers and contacts from known Quds force members, and the unit's reputation for ruthless efficiency.
Trita Parsi, the head of the National Iranian-American Council, said: "There is a risk that there are some elements who do believe that war is inevitable, but their view is that Iran will ultimately benefit. They say two wars in the region have crippled America as a superpower and turned it into a hobbling giant, and that Iran would bounce back from defeat.
"The Iranians I talk to make it clear that this is a small minority, but it is at the table whereas before it was not."
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